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NOAA GSL experimental model predicts smoke movement from California fire

August 04, 2020


While the eastern seaboard deals with the aftermath of Tropical Storm Isaias, the Apple Fire in southern California is poised to send smoke across much of the southwest United States over the next few days.

NOAA’s experimental HRRR-Smoke model predicts that by midnight on Wednesday, August 5, smoke from the Apple Fire will drift over Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado, making it as far east as the Texas Panhandle and southern plains, and as far north as Idaho and eastern Oregon.

The wildfire, driven primarily by record low fuel moisture content, combined with high temperatures and low relative humidity, is advancing into a wilderness area of the San Bernadino National Forest.

HRRR-Smoke is a research model developed by NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory and is based on the HRRR, or the High Resolution Rapid Refresh operational short-term weather forecast model currently used by the National Weather Service. While HRRR-Smoke is currently a research model, it is anticipated to become an operational model in the National Weather Service system later this year.