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Home » Impacts » Aviation Weather

Aviation Weather

69% of flight delays are caused by weather, costing passengers and the aviation industry about $30B each year. (2) These delays are often the result of unruly - and sometimes difficult to predict - weather. Weather forecasts are crucial for aviation operations – from predicting snow on the runways to storm conditions when in the air. GSL develops high-resolution models used daily by the FAA and the aviation industry to safely route aircraft around hazardous weather in the air and at terminals. The aviation industry also benefits from GSL research that advances the understanding and use of weather information through impact-based forecast assessments.

GSL research targets real-time information delivery to benefit decision-making in response to high-impact weather events.

Control Tower

GSL research helps air traffic operate more efficiently?

Airplane with note

GSL researches and evaluates aviation products so the FAA can decide which products to fund.

Flight Transfer

GSL research can help minimize delays for passengers?

Solutions

High-resolution weather models

Rapid Refresh (RAP) - GSL developed NOAA's RAP, a 13km continental-scale hourly-updated assimilation/modeling system operational at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). RAP covers North America and is comprised primarily of a numerical weather prediction model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize that model. RAP is complemented by the higher-resolution 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, which is also updated hourly and covers a smaller geographic domain. RAP v1 was implemented into NCEP operations on 1 May 2012 with the final version, RAPv5 implemented into operations on 2 December 2020.

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) - GSL also developed the HRRR weather model, a NOAA real-time 3km resolution, hourly-updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model, initialized by 3km grids with 3km radar data assimilation. Radar data is assimilated in the HRRR every 15 minutes over a 1-hour period, adding further detail to that provided by the hourly data assimilation from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Refresh. HRRR can predict ceiling heights, visibility, and icing conditions, all critical elements for aircraft operations. HRRRv1 was implemented into NCEP operations on 30 Sept 2014, and the final version, HRRRv4 was implemented into operations on 2 December 2020.

These models are also the base model for aviation hazard products developed by other organizations:

1. National Center for Atmospheric Research:

Graphical Turbulence Guidance - provides contours of turbulence potential based on NWP model forecasts out to 12 hours lead time. The GTG system is part of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational suite
Current Icing Product (CIP) - combines sensor and Numerical Weather Prediction model output to provide an hourly, three-dimensional diagnosis of the icing environment.
Forecast Icing Product (FIP) - is similar to CIP except that it is strictly a forecast and does not include the sensor inputs.
CIP/FIP outputs include calibrated icing probability, icing severity, and potential for supercooled large drops - includes freezing drizzle and freezing rain.

2. Massachusettes Institute of Technology Lincoln Labs:

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (COSPA) - a forecast product that ingests the HRRR

Closer look:

Forecast Verification for Denver International Airport - A Storymap

A recent study, led by NOAA GSL scientists, investigated the skill of four meteorological models in predicting snowfall for decision-making at Denver International Airport.

Assessments

GSL provides third-party, independent evaluations of FAA-funded weather products to inform research to operations decisions. These assessments have driven decisions such as the selection of the Localized Aviation MOS Product (LAMP) to provide ceiling and visibility data for the Helicopter Medical Emergency Services (HEMS) Tool, and delaying the implementation of the Offshore Precipitation Capability (OPC) to improve product performance.

Future Work

Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) - GSL, NSSL, NCEP/EMC, and partners are working together to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation and forecasting system, called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This effort aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. This model will serve as the replacement for RAP and HRRR with new aviation weather prediction capabilities.

GSL is working with the FAA's Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) group to determine how pilots use forecast information for specific areas of interest (e.g., flight path) to make decisions. This information will then be incorporated into GSL verification methods.

Partners