GSL scientist Dave Turner leads 5th National Climate Assessment Chapter

NOAA GSL Senior Scientist Dave Turner is an Agency Chapter Lead Author for the 5th National Climate Assessment Mitigation Chapter. The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) is mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The assessment is conducted about every four years and is an authoritative scientific analysis of climate change risks, impacts and responses in the U.S. Here are highlights from the mitigation chapter on this important work.

“U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have declined in recent decades but must decrease at a faster pace to meet mitigation targets and goals. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve improvements in energy efficiency, greater reliance on solar and wind energy, widespread electrification, and reliance on emerging technologies. Large reductions in emissions could improve human health and redress legacies of inequity.

Successful Mitigation Means Reaching Net-Zero Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. decreased by 12% between 2005 and 2019, mostly due to replacing coal-fired electricity generation with natural gas–fired and renewable generation. However, US net greenhouse gas emissions remain substantial and would have to decline by more than 6% per year on average, reaching net zero around mid-century, to meet current national climate targets and international temperature goals.

We Know How to Drastically Reduce Emissions
A U.S. energy system with net-zero emissions would rely on widespread improvements in energy efficiency, substantial electricity generation from solar and wind energy, and widespread electrification of transportation and heating. Low-carbon fuels would still be needed for some transport and industry applications that are difficult to electrify. Land-related emissions in the US could be reduced by increasing the efficiency of food systems and improving agricultural practices and by protecting and restoring natural lands. Across all sectors, many of these options are economically feasible now.

To Reach Net-Zero Emissions, Additional Mitigation Options Need to Be Explored
Although many mitigation options are currently available and cost-effective, the level and types of energy technologies and carbon management in net-zero-emissions energy systems depend on still-uncertain technological progress, public acceptance, consumer choice, and future developments in institutions, markets, and policies. Attractive targets for further research, development, and demonstration include carbon capture, utilization, and storage; long-duration energy storage; low-carbon fuels and feedstocks; demand management; next-generation electricity transmission; carbon dioxide removal; modern foods; and interventions to reduce industry and agricultural emissions.

Mitigation Can Be Sustainable, Healthy, and Fair
Large reductions in US greenhouse gas emissions could have substantial benefits for human health and well-being. Mitigation is expected to affect pollution, the use of land and water resources, the labor force, and the affordability, reliability, and security of energy and food . An equitable and sustainable transition to net-zero-emissions energy and food systems in the United States could help redress legacies of inequity, racism, and injustice while maximizing overall benefits to our economy and environment.

Governments, Organizations, and Individuals Can Act to Reduce Emissions
Mitigation efforts can be supported by a range of actors and actions, from choices made by individuals to decisions made by businesses and local, Tribal, state, and national governments. Actions with significant near-term potential include sector-based policies accelerating deployment of low-carbon technologies, city-level efforts to promote public transportation and improve building efficiency, and individual behavioral changes to reduce energy demand and meat consumption.”