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GSL models demonstrated in the 2022 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

July 05, 2022


Flash flood near Tucson

NOAA GSL’s experimental models were demonstrated at the 10th annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment. The experiment is running from June 20 to July 22 on weekdays hosted by the Weather Prediction Center’s Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT). Flash floods can yield devastating impacts on life and property, which is why access to accurate and timely forecasts is crucial. As evident in NOAA’s Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge, many aspects of forecasting have advanced, but precipitation forecasting still needs significant improvements, which is the objective of the FFaIR Experiments.

The experiment brings together experts from across the meteorological community, working to improve precipitation forecasts. The experiments aim to evaluate the usefulness of both operational and experimental products.

Four GSL Convective Allowing Models (CAMS), as well as GSL’s 10-member Rapid Refresh Forecast System - ensemble, are being demonstrated. The models are run in a pseudo-operational setting and participants use the experimental guidance to produce new warm season heavy rainfall and flash flood guidance. Results of the experiments are used to create recommendations for future use and development.

The experiments demonstrate the success of GSL models and identify additional areas for improvement. NOAA GSL technologies continue to provide valuable forecasts in extreme rainfall events.