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Home » Projects » Experimental Smoke Forecasts

GSL experimental wildfire smoke forecasts

GSL's experimental Rapid Refresh - Smoke (RAP-Smoke) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh-Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) models simulate the emissions and transport of smoke from wildfires and the impact of smoke on the weather. RAP-Smoke and HRRR-Smoke predict the 3D movement of fire-emitted fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 or fire smoke). The model first uses Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data from instruments on VIIRS and MODIS satellites. FRP is a measure of the radiant energy released by burning vegetation that is used to detect the location and intensity of wildfires. The measurements are mapped to the RAP 13km grid and the HRRR 3km grid, and processed to calculate the size of the fires. This information is is updated hourly, along with atmospheric observations, to couple the smoke the with weather simulations in the model to create plots of the following: Fire-Radiative Power (FRP) - Shows fire locations and intensities used as input data

These products complement the experimental 10-meter winds, 1-hour precipitation, 2-meter temperature, and surface visibility products produced by the RAP-Smoke and HRRR Smoke models.

This is increasingly being used by NOAA's National Weather Service and air-quality agencies to alert the public of potential air-quality hazards, and is scheduled to be implemented into operations in late 2020. This project is funded by the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) PGGR program. RAP-Smoke and HRRR-Smoke is developed at NOAA Global Systems Laboratory in collaboration with NOAA/NESDIS, NASA, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), and other institutes.

For questions contact Ravan Ahmadov at ravan.ahmadov@noaa.gov and Eric James at eric.james@noaa.gov.


HRRR Smoke Data PageHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh - Smoke (HRRR-Smoke)

HRRR-Smoke data page

HRRR-Smoke Interactive Visualization


HRRR-Smoke Alaska

HRRR-Alaska data page

HRRR-Smoke Alaska Interactive Visualization


Rapid Refresh-Smoke model (RAP-Smoke)

RAP-Smoke data page

RAP-Smoke Interactive Visualization



Finite Volume Cubed Sphere - Chemistry (FV3-Chem)

FV3-Chem is a global weather and chemistry research model that produces 7-day forecasts of aerosols such as smoke, soot, organic carbon, sulfate, and particles of dust and sea salt. This model predicts the impact of aerosols on the weather.

FV3-Chem Data Page